Vоlume 1, Issue 6 GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS IN POST-SOVIET SPACE: THE CASE OF THE SOUTH CAUCASUS Olimjonov Oyatbek

Аннотация

This article analyzes the changing geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus following the decline of Russian influence in the post-Soviet space. The 2020 Second Karabakh War, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the recent developments in Nagorno-Karabakh have significantly altered Moscow's image as a regional guarantor. Azerbaijan's growing assertiveness, Turkey's active role, and Western engagement in the region reflect a multipolar shift. By reviewing recent developments and analyzing regional power dynamics, this article argues that the South Caucasus is undergoing a fundamental transformation away from the traditional Russian-centric order. Keywords: South Caucasus, Russia, Karabakh conflict, post-Soviet, Ukraine war, Turkey, Azerbaijan, geopolitics Аннотация: В данной статье анализируется изменение геополитического ландшафта на Южном Кавказе после ослабления российского влияния на постсоветском пространстве. Вторая карабахская война 2020 года, вторжение России на Украину в 2022 году и недавние события в Нагорном Карабахе существенно изменили имидж Москвы как регионального гаранта. Растущая самоуверенность Азербайджана, активная роль Турции и участие Запада в регионе отражают многополярный сдвиг. На основе обзора последних событий и анализа динамики региональной власти в этой статье утверждается, что Южный Кавказ претерпевает фундаментальную трансформацию, уходя от традиционного российско-ориентированного порядка. 83 Jоurnаl оf Аnаlyticаl Synergy аnd Scientific Hоrizоn ISSN: 3060-5261 Impаct fаktоr: 9.9 Vоlume 1, Issue 6 Ключевые слова: Южный Кавказ, Россия, Карабахский конфликт, постсоветское пространство, война на Украине, Турция, Азербайджан, геополитика Annotatsiya: Ushbu maqola postsovet hududida Rossiya ta'sirining zaiflashuvidan so'ng Janubiy Kavkazdagi geosiyosiy landshaftning o'zgarishini tahlil qiladi. 2020 yilgi ikkinchi Qarabax urushi, 2022 yilda Rossiyaning Ukrainaga bostirib kirishi va tog'li Qorabog'dagi so'nggi voqealar Moskvaning mintaqaviy kafil sifatidagi imidjini sezilarli darajada o'zgartirdi. Ozarbayjonning o'ziga bo'lgan ishonchi ortib borayotgani, Turkiyaning faol roli va G'arbning mintaqadagi ishtiroki ko'p qutbli siljishni aks ettiradi. So'nggi voqealarni ko'rib chiqish va mintaqaviy hokimiyat dinamikasini tahlil qilish asosida ushbu maqola Janubiy Kavkaz an'anaviy ruslarga yo'naltirilgan tartibdan uzoqlashib, tub o'zgarishlarni boshdan kechirayotganini ta'kidlaydi. Kalit so'zlar: Janubiy Kavkaz, Rossiya, Qorabog ' mojarosi, postsovet makoni, Ukrainadagi urush, Turkiya, Ozarbayjon, geosiyosat The South Caucasus, long considered a strategic backyard of the Russian Federation, is undergoing a profound geopolitical transformation. The second Nagorno-Karabakh war (2020) and Azerbaijan’s decisive military operation in 2023 have further destabilized the post-Soviet regional balance. For decades, Russia functioned as the principal arbiter in the South Caucasus, leveraging historical, military, and political ties to maintain influence over Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. However, Moscow’s passive stance during recent crises, its overstretch in Ukraine, and the erosion of trust from traditional allies like Armenia have all contributed to a visible decline in its regional dominance. Simultaneously, other actors—including Turkey, the European Union, and the United States—have 84 Jоurnаl оf Аnаlyticаl Synergy аnd Scientific Hоrizоn ISSN: 3060-5261 Impаct fаktоr: 9.9 Vоlume 1, Issue 6 become more active in the region. Turkey has deepened its strategic ties with Azerbaijan, the EU has hosted mediation efforts, and the U.S. has emerged as a diplomatic player in resolving Armenia- Azerbaijan tensions. This article argues that Russia’s declining influence in the South Caucasus marks a systemic shift in the region’s geopolitical architecture, opening the door to a multipolar environment where no single actor can impose unilateral control.