Прогнозы продовольственного рынка и его альтернативные сценарии

Аннотация

Each region of the Fergana Valley is characterized by its strong management centers, the diversity of natural resources, the general agro-climatic factors, the availability and the potential for the creation of a finished product production system. For this reason, it is advisable to work out prospective directions for the deployment and development of productive forces. At the same time, it is important to fully utilize the capabilities of the main sector in the organized economic system of the region. The future development of productive forces in this area is inseparably linked with agro-industrial production and its sectoral and regional improvement. In addition, the interregional production system, which is based on the continuous growth of food production in the regions, the intensification of intersectoral communications, the expansion of the role of intensive factors, in turn, will increase the demand for complex scientific forecasts. At this stage, the scientific forecasting should reflect the activities of the food market and facilitate the expansion of foreign markets. The region's participation in the world economy opens the way for further stages of social and economic development. At the same time, the emphasis should be on the sustainable improvement of the elastic business structure, adapted to the changing competition inherent to the market economy. The main task of the food market in the Ferghana Valley in the near and long-term perspective is to increase production efficiency and bring the level of material welfare of the population to the world's leading countries on the basis of equalizing social and economic development in the regions. This, in its turn, is a very complex and urgent issue, not only with the radical changes in the economy, but also with a change in the lives of the whole society and, consequently, the acceleration of its development. In this regard, this article elaborates the forecasts of the food market in the Ferghana Valley for 2020-2030 and its alternative scenarios. The first scenario is based on a retrospective analysis of food production in the Ferghana Valley. In the second scenario, the population's food supply is calculated based on the minimum consumer budget, while the third scenario provides the regions' food supply coefficients and supply estimates. On the basis of the analysis of the forecast parameters of the Ferghana Valley Food Market and its results, scientific-practical conclusions have been developed.