Small business modeling and gdp forecasting of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Аннотация

In the article there studied relationship between main indicators of small business in the sectors of economy and the volume of GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan. There determined GDP forecast value that are based multivariate models. Keywords: modeling, small business, GDP, share of small business in GDP, number of small enterprises, correlation, regression. Much attention has been paid to the support and development of small businesses in the Republic of Uzbekistan lately. There commemorated a new stage in the economic development of the country in the Strategy for Actions on the further development of Uzbekistan in 2017-2021. In accordance with this document there implemented wide-ranging reforms aimed at improving the investment climate, creating a favorable business environment and stimulating accelerated business development. And there strengthened legal protection of small business, and financial support for the development of entrepreneurial activity [1]. According to the Tax Code adopted the following year there implemented a great number of innovations. In particular, the number of types of taxes has been reduced from 13 to 9. Simple tax payment mechanisms have been brought with the option of delay or installment plan. For the first time, the procedure for returning part of the value-added tax during sale of goods has been introduced to entrepreneurs. Previously, this system was applied only for exporting goods. Due to this, 3.4 trillion soums will remain at the disposal of entrepreneurs, or 2.5 times as much as than last year [2]. As a result of measures taken to create a business environment, comprehensive support and further stimulate business development, in 2019, 92.9 thousand new small enterprises and micro-firms were created (without dekhan farms and farms), which is 1.9 times more than in 2018. The largest number of small enterprises and micro-firms were created in the field of trade (39.1%), industry (21.0%), construction (9.4%), agriculture, forestry and fisheries (8.0%), housing and food (7.8%), transportation and storage (3.2%). Based on 1000 people, the average for the Republic of Uzbekistan on 01.01.2020 is 13.3 units. small businesses, or 100.8% of the level of 01.01.2019 [4]. 45 Scientific research results in pandemic conditions (COVID-19) Currently, small business plays a key role in the national economy of the country and the following data indicates it: Table 1 Share of small business (in % to the total volume) Years GDP The industry Services Construction Employment 2015 54.5 40.6 58.2 66.7 77.9 2016 57.3 45.3 61.4 66.9 78.2 2017 54.9 41.2 58.4 66.2 78.0 2018 59.4 37.4 56.0 73.2 78.3 2019 56.5 34.9 52.1 75.4 78.1 Source: State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics. The share of small business in GDP is 56.4% (59.4% in 2018), industry - 37.4% (34.9%), services - 52.1% (56%), construction – 73.2% (75.4%), employment - 78.1% (78.3%) and export 28.7% (27.2% view the table 1). It is known that the GDP volume is the sum of the bulk of completed work in all sectors of economy. Consequently GDP depends on the volume of key indicators of small business and business in sectors of economy. In work [3] there carried out an econometric analysis between the number of small business entities and their share in the GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan. In this paper, we are going to examine the relationship between the main indicators of small business in the sectors of economy and the volume of GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan. In order to study the relationship between the main indicators of small business and GDP there used multivariate correlation and regression analysis. Endogenous (dependent) variable volume has been chosen in GDP (Y, billion soums) of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The following indicators (factors) are taken as an exogenous (independent) variable: - the bulk of completed work by small enterprises in industry (X , billion 1 soums); - the number of people employed in the sphere of small business (X , 2 thousand people); - export volume of small enterprises (X , mln. USD); 3 - the number of operating small enterprises (X , thousand units); 4 - the volume of services of small business trade (X , billion soums); 5 - the volume of completed work by small enterprises in agriculture, forestry and fish sector (X , billion soums). 6 To conduct the research there have been used the data of the above mentioned indicators for 20 years (from 2000 to 2019) presented on the website of the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics [4]. 46 Scientific research results in pandemic conditions (COVID-19) Intercorrelation coefficients (i.e., correlations between explanatory variables) make it possible to exclude duplicating factors from the model. It is considered that two variables are clearly (strong) collinear, i.e. they are linearly related to each other if the pair correlation coefficient r(x, x)>0,8. i j In this case, one of the duplicating factors is exclud