Макроэкономическое моделирование инструментов денежно-кредитной политики

Аннотация

Subject of research: the adopted monetary policy of the Republic of Uzbekistan is the subject of research. Purpose of work: The purpose of work is to frame scientific proposals and practical recommendations on improving monetary policy based on elaboration and application econometric models in providing stable and strong economic growth of national economy. Methods of research: Methods of logical comparative analysis, and statistical analysis, methods of econometric modeling, also error correction, extrapolation, and target prediction methods were used in the course of research. The results obtained and their novelty: The elaboration of the recursive system of economical-mathematic models which reflect the influence of monetary policy instruments on the macroeconomic indicators. It includes: the theoretical and methodological basis for estimating the influence of monetary policy instruments on economic growth was elaborated; econometric methods of modeling the influence of refinancing rate and required reserves rate on macroeconomic indicators are proposed; on the basis of proposed methods of modeling the recursive system of economical-mathematic models was elaborated and used; a quantitative estimation the influence of monetary instruments on indicators of money market and real sector of the economy carried out; GDP growth and inflation dynamics subject to various levels of refinancing rate and required reserves rate for the medium run were forecasted; further development and improvement of instruments of monetary policy was suggested. Practical value: The introduced methods and models of monetary policy instruments, the developed system of recursive models, and forecasted estimates of GDP growth and inflation rate can be used in the process of elaborating programs for perspective development of the Uzbek economy, and also in identification further short and medium-run monetary policies aimed to support stability of national currency and steady state of economic growth. Degree of embed and economic effectivity: The findings and predictive estimates of econometric models have been accepted for application on projects of analysis and forecasting of monetary policy at the Institute of forecasting and macroeconomic research under Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan (certificate #175, 18.05.2010). Also, main results of dissertation are used in the educational process of Tashkent State University of Economics (certificate #02-1736, 17.05.2010). Field of application: The banking system of the Republic of Uzbekistan.