Prospects for ensuring economic development by reducing risks inherent to the economy of Uzbekistan

Аннотация

This article is devoted to the analysis of the Kodirov Ural Safar ugli. (2025). Prospects for ensuring economic economic and financial situation of Uzbekistan based on development by reducing risks inherent to the economy of Uzbekistan. The the methodology of the International Country Risk American Journal of Management and Economics Innovations, 7(05), 107– 112. https://doi.org/10.37547/tajmei/Volume07Issue05-13 Guide (ICRG). The study analyzes the financial and economic indicators of the country in recent years, such indicators as external debt, based on the main COPYRIGHT components of the ICRG model. The research is based © 2025 Original content from this work may be used under the terms on reports and statistical data from international of the creative commons attributes 4.0 License. financial institutions. Keywords: ICRG methodology, real GDP growth rate, inflation rate, budget balance, current account balance, economic risk, foreign debt, exchange rate, financial risk. Introduction: The economy of Uzbekistan has been experiencing significant growth in recent years. The economic reforms implemented in the country since 2016, in particular, measures aimed at liberalizing the economy and developing the private sector, have served to increase the country's reliability in international financial markets. The results of the economic reforms carried out in the country are also reflected in international ratings maintained by international rating agencies. At the same time, the state of real GDP growth, the level of inflation, the country's external debt, the current account balance, and risks to the country's economic and financial situation are constantly assessed by international financial institutions. In recent years, the risks associated with entering into international economic relations between countries have increased significantly, and their analysis and assessment have The American Journal of Management and Economics Innovations 107 https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajmei The American Journal of Management and Economics Innovations become more complex for decision-makers in the In the methodology published by PRS Group (2024), the economic, financial, and political spheres. document “International country risk guide” highlights the basic principles of the ICRG model. In this document, In such assessments, the “International Country Risk political, economic, and financial indicators are used in Guide” (ICRG) methodology, developed by the PRS the analysis of the country's risk. Country risk is an Group (Political Risk Services Group), is used as an indicator of a country's creditworthiness and represents important tool. Established in 1979, the PRS Group its ability and willingness to fulfill its international operates as an organization specializing in political, financial obligations. As a result of the globalization of economic, and financial risks on an international scale. world trade and the liberalization of capital markets, the It assists international investors, corporations, and international financial community is experiencing government agencies in analyzing and evaluating risk financial crises in both developed and developing levels across different countries. countries. These crises are inflicting significant financial The ICRG methodology is designed to analyze damage on official institutions, private organizations, countries' political, economic, and financial risk and market participants. The risk rating of countries categories, with each risk category comprising specific helps these countries enter capital markets and variables: 12 variables in the political risk category, 5 provides official institutions and private market variables in the economic risk category, and 5 variables operators with the necessary tools for assessing and in the financial risk category. Analysis of political risk managing such risks (Hoti, 2014; Toshtemirovich & using its 12 variables is not carried out due to the lack Ibrogimovich, 2024). of public information and limited access to data. Reports published by the International Monetary Fund Therefore, this study aims to analyze the country risks (IMF) and the World Bank are an important source of for Uzbekistan based on economic and financial risks. information when analyzing the external debt and Furthermore, the purpose of the study is to analyze the solvency of developing economies. For example, the country's risk based on macroeconomic factors. IMF report "Uzbekistan: 2022 Article IV Consultation" Consequently, the main data collected and analyzed details Uzbekistan's economic reforms, the dynamics of are primarily based on economic and financial risk external debt, and the state of foreign exchange factors, with less emphasis placed on political risk reserves (IMF, 2022). Although this report positively factors. assesses the country's external financial stability, import The purpose of this article is to analyze Uzbekistan's dependence a