A NOVEL PROGNOSTIC SYSTEM FOR 30-DAY MORTALITY IN PATIENTS WITH ULCER UPPER GASTROINTESTINAL BLEEDING

Аннотация

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) remains a serious medical issue with a high incidence rate and significant mortality. Despite modern advancements in diagnosis and treatment, mortality rates have not decreased, making accurate prognosis a crucial challenge in contemporary medicine. Objective. To develop and validate a novel prognostic system for assessing the risk of 30-day in-hospital mortality in patients with ulcerative UGIB. Materials and Methods. A two-center study was conducted, comprising a retrospective derivation phase and a prospective validation phase, performed using a double-blind method. Analysis was carried out using logistic regression and factor clustering. The developed prognostic system was compared with six recommended scoring systems. Results. The novel system demonstrated an excellent AUROC score (0.853). Its sensitivity reached 76.47%, and specificity was 94.12%, allowing for a more accurate identification of patients at high risk of fatal outcomes compared to existing analogs. Conclusion. The newly developed prognostic system exhibits high accuracy in predicting 30-day in-hospital mortality in patients with ulcerative UGIB.