FUTURE FORECAST VALUES FOR INCREASING WOMEN'S ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTIVITY AND ENSURING WOMEN'S EMPLOYMENT IN THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN

Аннотация

The results of the model developed to develop future forecast values for ensuring women's employment and calculate forecast values for the number of small businesses owned by women in the Republic of Karakalpakstan are presented. www.pedagoglar.org 40-to’plam 1-qism Fevral 2025 135 Ta'limda raqamli texnologiyalarni tadbiq etishning zamonaviy tendensiyalari va rivojlanish omillari Keywords: Model results, women's employment, socio-economic, activity, women, entrepreneurship, forecast, calculation. Our government pays special attention to ensuring women's employment, increasing their socio-economic activity, and creating broad opportunities for women to engage in entrepreneurship. The work being carried out in this area and the changes resulting from them were mentioned in the previous paragraphs of our dissertation work, and this paragraph, using the available information, future forecast values for increasing women's entrepreneurial activity and ensuring women's employment in the Republic of Karakalpakstan were developed. Ensuring women's employment requires increasing their role not only as workers but also as entrepreneurs and managers. For this reason, wide opportunities have been created for them to engage in entrepreneurship, and work is being carried out intensively in areas such as training them in the profession, and providing preferential loans. As a result, the number of women entrepreneurs is increasing year by year. Taking into account the dynamics of changes in this indicator in the Republic of Karakalpakstan, we will look at the growth rates in recent years. Since this indicator has a specific growth rate in 2011-2023 and, in addition to the general trend, also includes random changes, the results of a comparative analysis of various models showed that using the ARMAX model is the optimal option. As a result, the following model was selected. 𝑋 = 1817,0+ 0,67 ∗ 𝜀 − 98,7 ∗ 𝑡 + 14,8∗ 𝑡2 6 𝑡−1 Here: X - Number of small businesses owned by women in the Republic of 6 Karakalpakstan (unit). Table 1 Results of a model developed to calculate forecast values for the number of small businesses owned by women in the Republic of Karakalpakstan Model 15: ARMAX, using observations 2011-2023 (T = 13) Dependent variable: X 6 www.pedagoglar.org 40-to’plam 1-qism Fevral 2025 136 Ta'limda raqamli texnologiyalarni tadbiq etishning zamonaviy tendensiyalari va rivojlanish omillari Standard errors based on Hessian Coefficient Std. Error z p-value Const 1816.96 151.773 11.97 <0.0001 *** theta_1 0.679181 0.266751 2.546 0.0109 ** Time −98.7066 49.7073 −1.986 0.0471 ** t2 14.7566 3.43095 4.301 <0.0001 *** Mean dependent var 2052.538 S.D. dependent var 446.2530 Mean of innovations 3.956550 S.D. of innovations 105.7966 R-squared 0.939246 Adjusted R-squared 0.927096 Log-likelihood −79.35522 Akaike criterion 168.7104 Schwarz criterion 171.5352 Hannan-Quinn 168.1298 Real Imaginary Modulus Frequency MA Root 1 -1.4724 0.0000 1.4724 0.5000 A quadratic model was selected, and an additional factor was introduced to account for random variations. As a result, a positive change was achieved in the reliability level of the model and the adequacy of the coefficients (Table 1). The z-statistics results obtained for all coefficients are at the required level, their reliability is higher than 95%. The coefficient of determination is 0.94, which indicates that the selected factors cover 94% of the changes in the resulting factor, and the remaining 6% is due to other factors. These results justify the possibility of developing forecast values with high reliability based on the model. The forecast results indicate a rapid growth in the number of women-owned small businesses in the region over the next year (Table 2). Table 2 Forecast values for the number of small businesses owned by women in the Republic of Karakalpakstan www.pedagoglar.org 40-to’plam 1-qism Fevral 2025 137 Ta'limda raqamli texnologiyalarni tadbiq etishning zamonaviy tendensiyalari va rivojlanish omillari For 95% confidence intervals, z(0.025) = 1.96 Years X Growth rate Standard error 95 percent interval 6 2024 3449 107,7 105,797 (3241,32, 3656,04) 2025 3657 106,0 127,891 (3405,94, 3907,27) 2026 4015 109,8 127,891 (3764,69, 4266,02) 2027 4404 109,7 127,891 (4152,96, 4654,28) 2028 4821 109,5 127,891 (4570,73, 5072,06) That is, the growth rate varies between 6.0 and 9.8 percent, and the average growth rate is 8.5 percent. However, during the period under study, the average growth rate was 6.0 percent, and the growth rate varied between 0.9 and 23.4 percent. It is precisely the fact that the maximum growth rate fell in 2023 that caused the growth rate to be higher in subsequent years and ensured an increase in the average growth rate during the forecast period. In general, the number of small business entities owned by women in 2028 will reach 4821 units, an increase of 1.5 times compared to 2023. Also, the number of women working in small businesses and private entrepreneur