INFLUENCE OF CLIMATIC CONDITIONS ON THE MAXIMUM FLOWS OF WATER DISCHARGED INTO THE LOWER WATER RESERVOIR

Аннотация

The article is devoted to studying the dependence of the maximum flow rates of water discharged into the lower pool through reservoir dams on weather and climatic conditions, using the Tokhtogul reservoir as an example. For this purpose, a statistical assessment of the relationship between air temperature and maximum water flows discharged from the Tohktogul reservoir in the autumn and winter seasons into its lower pool ( ) was carried out and a regression equation for this relationship was obtained. As a result, it was possible to predict the maximum water flows of the Naryn river inrth=e a0u.t9u1m1n-±wi0nt.0er08seasons depending onairtemperature. Keywords:reservoir, dam, tailwater, maximum water flow, air temperature, flood, assessment. I. Introduction Currently, specialized scientific centers worldwide are paying significant attention to studying hazardous hydrological processes, particularly the breaching of dam reservoirs under various influencing factors. When reservoirs are operated in an energy-driven mode, especially during autumn and winter seasons, the discharge of maximum water volumes from dam reservoirs into downstream sections increases, leading to hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena such as floods and mudflows [1,11,14,15,16]. Moreover, disasters associated with peak river discharges of different origins have become more frequent in recent years. These events cause substantial material and moral damage to various economic sectors and the population, and, in some cases, result in human casualties [3,7,10,12]. Therefore, current research focused on assessing the hydrometeorological and socio-economic dependencies of maximum water discharges from reservoirs operating in energy-driven modes is of great relevance. II. Research Objectives andTasks The primary objective of this study is to examine the impact of weather conditions on the maximum water discharges released into downstream sections of reservoirs operated in an energy-driven mode, using the Toktogul Reservoir as a case study. To achieve this objective, the main tasks of the study include analyzing the daily peak water discharges from the Toktogul page191 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ISSN:2692-5206,ImpactFactor:12,23 AmericanAcademicpublishers,volume05,issue04,2025 Journal: https://www.academicpublishers.org/journals/index.php/ijai Reservoir dam into the downstream section, statistically evaluating their dependence on air temperature, and developing practical recommendations based onthe obtained results. The Toktogul Reservoir and the daily peak water discharges released from its dam into the downstream section have been chosen as the research object. The study focuses on analyzing the hydrometeorological and socio-economic dependencies of water discharges from thereservoir, which constitutes thesubject ofthisresearch. III.MainResults and Discussion The emergence of this extraordinary situation is directly linked to the Toktogul Reservoir and its operation in an energy-driven mode. Over the past decade, the neighboring Kyrgyz Republic has primarily operated the Toktogul Reservoir for energy production purposes [11,15]. Consequently, the current hydrograph of the Naryn River has transformed into an almost completeinverse ofthehydrograph that represents its natural water regime(Figure 1). During the winter months, due to increased electricity demand, the Toktogul Hydropower Station operates at its maximum capacity. As a result, the peak water discharges in the Naryn River also occur in the winter months, as illustrated in Figure 4. In this graph, the water inflows (labeled as "Inflow") represent data provided by the Kyrgyz National Energy Holding Company, while the water outflows (labeled as "Outflow") correspond to measurements taken at the "Uchkurgan" hydrological station ofUzHydromet. Inflow Outflow day Fig. 4.Changes inthe inflowand outflowelements ofthe Tokhtogulreservoir during theyear (2020) Therefore, the main reason for the discrepancy between the hydrographs shown in Figure 1 is the sharp drop in air temperature during the winter months, which in turn leads to an increased demand for electricity generation. To meet this demand, the volume of water released page192 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ISSN:2692-5206,ImpactFactor:12,23 AmericanAcademicpublishers,volume05,issue04,2025 Journal: https://www.academicpublishers.org/journals/index.php/ijai from the reservoir dam into its downstream section must be significantly increased. Below, we discussthe hydrometeorological aspects of thisprocess. To achieve the research objective, we utilized air temperature data from the Uchkurgan agrometeorological station, administered by UzHydromet, located along the Naryn River. Information on the water discharges from the Toktogul Reservoir dam was obtained from the engineering service of the Kyrgyz National Energy Holding Company, as previously noted. Using these hydrometeorological data, chronological gra