ECOLOGICALLY BALANCED DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONS: ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND FORECASTING

Аннотация

This articles examines some economic models used in ecology, as well as factors of sustainable development of agroecosystems. Key words: ecology, economic development, environment, mathematical modeling. At the end of the 20th century, attitudes towards economic development underwent significant changes. Improving the quality of life, creating comfortable living conditions and preserving the natural environment became priority issues. Achieving ecological and economic balance aimed at minimizing the negative impact on the environment acquired particular importance within the framework of the concept of sustainable development. The need for these changes is due to the awareness of the limitation of natural resources and the assimilation potential of the biosphere [1, 2]. The development of regional economies should be carried out taking into account environmental factors, which involves the restoration and maintenance of self-regulating natural systems. To solve this problem, it is necessary to use modern economic and mathematical tools that allow finding a balance between economic interests and the preservation of ecosystems [3]. Methodological approaches to modeling ecological and economic processes. When developing regional development strategies, the use of economic and mathematical modeling plays an important role. Modern methods allow not only to analyze the current situation, but also to predict the consequences of decisions taken. Among the most common tools, we can highlight:  Balance models used to determine the relationships between economic sectors and their impact on natural resources [2].  Econometric models that use statistical data to identify patterns and predict the development of situations [3].  Optimization models that allow us to evaluate various scenarios for the inclusion of environmental factors in the economic and investment activities of a region [4]. 40 ACADEMIC RESEARCH IN MODERN SCIENCE International scientific-online conference  Information and logical models that allow analyzing complex multi- parameter systems and identifying optimal resource management strategies [5]. Modeling of soil fertility as a factor of sustainable development. One of the key aspects of the ecological and economic development of regions is the maintenance of soil fertility. In scientific literature, soil fertility models are considered as a set of their optimal properties that contribute to the rational functioning of intrasoil processes, ensuring high productivity of agricultural crops [6]. According to the research of Efremov V.V., soil fertility is determined not only by its physical and chemical characteristics, but also by dynamic processes occurring under the influence of anthropogenic and climatic factors [7]. Modern fertility models allow us to predict the yield and quality of agricultural products, identify limiting factors and develop effective strategies for managing agroecosystems [8]. The main requirements for soil fertility models include: Informativeness of indicators affecting productivity and product quality; Possibility of comparative analysis of different soil covers and assessment of factors limiting their productivity; Forecasting the dynamics of changes over time; Feasibility and cost-effectiveness of fertility management models [9]. The most promising method of analysis is information-logical modeling, which allows taking into account complex relationships between soil characteristics and the conditions of their use. Forecasting ecological and economic development. The use of aggregate models for long-term forecasting is an important tool for sustainable regional development. Forecasting models allow:  Assess the impact of economic activity on the environment [3];  Develop scenarios for balanced development taking into account environmental and economic factors [4];  Optimize the use of land and water resources [5];  Develop adaptation strategies for agriculture in the conditions of climate change [6]. Thus, modeling of ecological and economic processes allows not only to predict the consequences of economic decisions, but also to develop effective strategies for sustainable development of regions. The use of mathematical methods in combination with modern information technologies opens up new 41 ACADEMIC RESEARCH IN MODERN SCIENCE International scientific-online conference opportunities for ensuring environmental safety and improving the life quality of population. List of references: 1. Glazyrina I.P. Study of the quality of economic growth in the context of the concept of sustainable development // Economics of nature management. 2006. No. 4. P. 21-31. 2. Druzhin P.V. Calculation of parameters of national and regional aggregated production functions // Economics and mathematical methods. 1990. Vol. 26, No. 5. P. 891-896. 3. Druzhin P.V., Moroshkina M.V., Shkiperova G.T. Models of ecological and economic processes: optimization approach // Bulletin of Perm University. 2