ECONOMETRIC MODELING AND FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF TAX BURDEN ON ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

Аннотация

The scientific article presents proposals and recommendations for identifying factors affecting the optimization of the tax burden of oil and gas industry enterprises through econometric models, increasing enterprise income, reducing taxes and mandatory payments, and identifying ways to optimizethe tax burden. Keywords:tax, tax burden, oil and gas industry enterprises, econometric models, total taxes and payments, enterprise sales revenue at contractual prices, value of fixed assets, investments in production, cost ofgoods sold. Today, the excessive tax burden on businesses is considered a negative factor that hinders their proper functioning and obstructs entrepreneurial activity. High tax burdens can lead to the economy shifting into the shadow sector. When tax rates are high, some entrepreneurs and individuals may attempt to move into the informal economy to avoid or reduce their legal tax obligations. Thus, an important aspect of successful management is the application of tax optimization methods that take into account the specific aspects of each enterprise. Effective tax optimization requires the use of a set of existing tax enforcement methods, constantly adapting them to the unique characteristics of the enterprise. Reviewing and improving existing methods for reducing the tax burden, taking into account the frequent changes in domestic tax legislation, determines the relevanceof thechosen research topic. According to the Decree of the President of the Republicof Uzbekistan No. PF-158 dated September 11, 2023, on the "Uzbekistan 2030" Strategy, the following goals have been set to ensure the prosperity of the population through sustainable economic growth: leveraging opportunities to expand the tax base by reducing the "Shadow Economy," transitioning to a "Green Economy" with a significant increase in the use of renewable energy, gradually shifting monopoly sectors to market principles, increasing the share of the private sector in the economy, creating favorable conditions for entrepreneurs to operate freely, ensuring the stability of the tax system, guaranteeing that value-added and profit tax rates will not be increased for three years, fully digitizing and simplifying the tax system, creating equal opportunities for entrepreneurs, and establishing all necessary conditions to ensure the dominance of the formal sector over illegal activities by2030. Based on the above, it is considered important to identify and describe the factors influencing the optimization of the tax burden on oil and gas industry enterprises through econometric modelingof theirmutual impact and usingstatistical data. page110 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ISSN:2692-5206,ImpactFactor:12,23 AmericanAcademicpublishers,volume05,issue02,2025 Journal: https://www.academicpublishers.org/journals/index.php/ijai Analysis of literature on the topic. The study of the impact of the tax burden on the organization and regulation of socio-economic processes has historically been one of the important research directions. The results obtained have attracted the attention of numerous researchers, policymakers, and practitioners. They have primarily focused on issues such as the impact of the tax burden on economic activity, the distribution of the tax burden among economic entities and individuals, the painless transfer of the tax burden to other entities, and mitigating its impact on the financial condition of taxpayers. However, despite this, the issue of determining theoptimal level ofthetax burden stillremains unresolved. There are similar and closely related approaches among scholars and experts regarding the determination of the tax burden at the macro level. The characteristics of the tax burden as the weight of tax obligations at the macro level, i.e., its impact on the entire economy, are observed in the works of F. Justi[2], K. Brauer[3], A.V. Vahobov and A.S. Juraev[4], K. Yahyaev[5], and T.S. Malikov[6]. Sh.Sh.Turaev, in a number of scientific studies, has explained the tax burden at the micro level as the ratio of taxes and payments to the volume of sales of products byan economic entity[7]. Enterprises generate a certain economic profit as a result of their economic activities. A portion of this profit is paid to the state budget in the form of corporate income tax. At the same time, the increase in the types of taxes for enterprises, on the one hand, limits their capabilities, andontheotherhand, provides opportunities to choosenew directions of activity. Today, questions about what the tax burden should be for enterprises and what they shouldfocus onto reduce thetax burden are among the mostpressing issues for enterprises. Research Methodology. The research employs a methodology to identify factors influencing the tax burden on enterprise performance indicators through econometric models, taking into account expected changes in the enterprise in the coming years, and thereby studying the optimization of the ta