Роль внешнего фактора в Центральной Азии: анализ возможностей и рисков

Аннотация

The geostrategic importance of the Central Asian region is associated with its geographical location, the presence of significant reserves of natural resources, as well as its important transit potential. Today, the countries of Central Asia are going through a stage of serious transformations associated with the strengthening of the role of external players in the region. The Central Asian region is becoming the target of major power confrontation and geopolitical confrontation between the world's leading players for resources and political influence. In this context, it is important for the Central Asian countries to assess both emerging opportunities and risks to maintain geopolitical balance and create a belt of security, stability and economic development around the Central Asian region. Key words: Central Asia, external forces, transport and logistics corridors, geopolitical confrontation, geopolitical balance, USA, Russia, China, EU, regional cooperation. MARKAZIY OSIYODAGI TASHQI OMILNING ROLI: IMKONIYATLAR VA XAVFLAR TAHLILI Annotatsiya. Markaziy Osiyo mintaqasining geostrategik ahamiyati uning geografik joylashuvi, tabiiy resurslarning katta zaxiralariga ega bo‘lishi hamda muhim transport va logistika salohiyatiga ega bo‘lishi bilan bog‘liqdir. Bugungi kunda Markaziy Osiyo davlatlari mintaqadagi tashqi kuchlarning rolini kuchaytirish bilan bog‘liq jiddiy transformatsiya bosqichini o‘tayapti. Markaziy Osiyo mintaqasi dunyoning yetakchi davlatlari o‘rtasidagi resurslar va siyosiy ta’sir uchun raqobat va geosiyosiy ziddiyatlar ob'ektiga aylanmoqda. Shu nuqtai nazardan, Markaziy Osiyo davlatlari yangi imkoniyatlar va xavflarni baholashlari, geosiyosiy muvozanatni saqlab qolish va Markaziy Osiyo mintaqasining atrofida xavfsizlik, barqarorlik va iqtisodiy rivojlanish kamarini yaratish zarurligini tushunishlari muhimdir. Kalit so‘zlar: Markaziy Osiyo, tashqi kuchlar, transport va logistika yo‘llari, geosiyosiy ziddiyat, geosiyosiy muvozanat, AQSH, Rossiya, Xitoy, Yevropa Ittifoqi, mintaqaviy hamkorlik. 3 «Наука и инновации в интересах национального и глобального развития» РОЛЬ ВНЕШНЕГО ФАКТОРА В ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЙ АЗИИ: АНАЛИЗ ВОЗМОЖНОСТЕЙ И РИСКОВ Аннотация. Геостратегическое значение Центральноазиатского региона связано с его географическим положением, наличием значительных запасов природных ресурсов, а также его важным транзитным потенциалом. Сегодня страны Центральной Азии переживают этап серьезных трансформаций, связанных с усилением роли внешних игроков в регионе. Центральноазиатский регион становится объектом соперничества крупных держав и геополитической конфронтации мировых ведущих игроков за ресурсы и политическое влияние. В этом контексте важно, чтобы страны Центральной Азии оценили как возникающие возможности, так и риски для поддержания геополитического баланса и создания пояса безопасности, стабильности и экономического развития вокруг Центральноазиатского региона. Ключевые слова: Центральная Азия, внешние силы, транспортно- логистические коридоры, геополитическая конфронтация, геополитический баланс, США, Россия, Китай, ЕС, региональное сотрудничество. The modern world is faced with global changes that are associated with competition between states for spheres of influence, conflicts, and ongoing wars. Against the backdrop of these events, the countries of Central Asia are undergoing a stage of serious transformation associated with the strengthening of the role of external players in the region. The intensification of the role of leading world and regional powers can be associated with the geostrategic importance of the Central Asian region, namely its geographical location, and the presence of noticeable reserves of natural resources, as well as its important logistics and transit potential of the region. Conventionally, there are several stages of geopolitical confrontation between the world's leading players for resources and political influence in the Central Asian region. The first stage is associated with the gaining of independence of the Central Asian countries, when the leading world and regional powers began to officially proclaim and implement their so-called Central Asian strategies. These documents put forward reasons for pursuing a more active and long-term policy in the Central Asian region. The United States, the European Union, Russia, China, Turkey, Japan, India, and South Korea have put forward their strategies. And the Central Asian countries themselves at that time were absorbed in the problems of state formation and tried to find their way in foreign policy. The second stage is associated with the entry of the international coalition into Afghanistan after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001; the Central Asian countries are pursuing a multi-vector foreign policy. The influence of not only traditional actors represented by states is growing in the region, but also non- 4 «Наука и инновации в интересах национального и глобального развития» traditional actors: transnat