BIOCLIMATIC MODELING OF THE SPECIES JURINEA SCHACHIMORDANICA (ASTERACEAE)

Аннотация

INTRODUCTION temperatures are increasing across Central Asia, Central Asia is a particularly vulnerable region due and regional climate change scenarios show that to its physical geography with temperate deserts temperatures will rise by 1°C–3°C in the next 20– and semi-deserts (Lioubimtseva and Henebry 40 years. If global greenhouse gas emissions are 2009). The environment is very sensitive to global not reduced, temperatures are projected to rise by climate change, and it is particularly vulnerable to 3°C to 6°C above today’s levels by the end of the changing weather patterns (Brooke 2014). century (Novikov et al., 2012). Especially, water resources in this area are the main factors for the sustainable development of In recent years, the growing demand for natural biodiversity. There is a low concentration of water medicinal plant and climate change has led to a vapor over this area and the distribution of water reduction in plant stocks. For this reason, much resources in Central Asia is very uneven. attention is paid in the world to determine the Meteorological data have shown that air species composition of medicinal plants, study https://www.theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajabe 15 THE USA JOURNALS THE AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE AND BIOMEDICAL ENGINEERING (ISSN – 2689-1018) VOLUME 06 ISSUE10 their biological properties, identify natural scenario, with a spatial resolution of 2.5 arc resources and bioclimatic modeling, scientifically minutes (~4.64 km2 at the equator). The data substantiating changes in populations as a result of contain 19 bioclimatic variables, which are obvious external. biologically significant and are usually used in species distribution and related ecological For the first time, bioclimatic modeling of the modeling. The topographic data contain elevation future potential distribution areas of this plant variables. species is being done using Maxent and ArcGIS programs. The obtained results allow to sobtain We used MaxEnt software (version 3.4.4) to model enough biomass for the creation and production of the habitat suitability of J. schachimordanica plant plantations of the species in the areas of potential in Pamir-Alay. This software is considered to build distribution. some of the best performing models for forecasting species distribution with a limited number of In recent years, the number of studies on records. Initially, 11 coordinates in *CSV format bioclimatic modeling has been increasing were stored and 19 bioclimatic variables and (Gulomov, 2023; Abdullayev, 2024; Nuridinov, altitude values obtained from the WorldClim 2023; Najmiddinov, 2023). database were imported into the MaxEnt model. The following tasks were defined as the research From the MaxEnt model, the output map values objective: (1) identify the hot spots of J. range from 0 to 1 (0 least and 1 most suitable schachimordanica plant in Pamir-Alay under past species probability pixels) (Phillips et al., 2006; climatic conditions. (2) Explore the relationship Min-Su Park, 2024; Gulomov and Batoshov, 2022; between the distribution of hot spots and Gulomov, 2022). In our models, 75% of the environmental factors, and explore the important occurrence records were used for training whereas environmental factors that limit the distribution of 25% of the records were used for testing the model. hot spots. (3) The hot spots of J. schachimordanica The background points and the number of plant in Pamir-Alay were predicted according to iterations were set at no more than 10,000 and the global climate change scenarios of the future 1000, respectively. (2070s). When receiving research results the scenarios METHODS RCP2.6_2070s (SSP1-2.6 (ssp126) minimum In total 11 species presence records of J. greenhouse gases) and RCP8.5_2070s (SSP5-8.5 schachimordanica were incorporated in this (ssp585) maximum greenhouse gases) based on investigation. By searching the Global Biodiversity IPCC proposed greenhouse gas concentrations Information Facility (GBIF; (RCP) were used. According to the IPCC (2019) https://www.gbif.org/), National Herbarium of sixth report (AR5), the annual average Uzbekistan (TASH), Kyrgyz National Herbarium temperature is 0.4-1.6 °C under the RCP 2.6 (2061- (FRU) and the results of field research conducted in 2080) scenario, and 1.4-2.6 °C under the RCP 8.5 the Pamir-Alay regions in 2023-2024 were used. (2061–2080) scenario. The point’s record from each herbarium specimens The default output of Maxent is in the logistic form, was transformed into GPS geographical indicating the environmental suitability for J. coordinates using Google Earth Pro 7.1 and ArcGIS schachimordanica in Pamir-Alay with values (version 10.6.1) software. ranging from 0 to 1. For further analyses, the The current climate data used in this study (1970- results of MaxEnt were imported into ArcGIS 2000) come from the WorldClim database program potential habitats were reclassified as (http://www.worldclim.org/). The model contains foll