Impact of belt and road initiative (BRI) on Central and South Asian regional integration

Аннотация

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one of the noteworthy initiatives of the Chinese government. It has been intended to interface neighboring 65 nations to enhance inter-regional international trade. This research focused on impact of initiative on Central and South Asian regional integration under BRI framework. Central and South Asia, characterized by diverse geopolitical interests and historical complexities, have emerged as focal points of the BRI's implementation. The article explores how the BRI has influenced the dynamics of regional integration in these regions, considering factors such as infrastructure investments, economic interdependence, and geopolitical alignments. By examining case studies and analyzing data, the article provides insights into the opportunities and challenges presented by the BRI for Central and South Asian countries. It discusses how infrastructure projects under the BRI have the potential to bridge connectivity gaps, stimulate economic growth, and foster greater regional cooperation. However, it also addresses concerns regarding debt sustainability, sovereignty issues, and geopolitical tensions that have arisen in the context of BRI investments. Furthermore, the article evaluates the role of key stakeholders such as China, Russia, India, and the countries of Central and South Asia in shaping the trajectory of regional integration within the framework of the BRI. It considers the evolving geopolitical landscape and the implications for regional security, trade dynamics, and diplomatic relations. Overall, this article provides a comprehensive analysis of the Impact of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on Central and South Asian Regional Integration, offering valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders interested in the geopolitics and economics of the Eurasian region. For data analysis, several databases have been utilized likewise, UN-Comtrade, World Bank, World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), etc. Data analysis part has done with the application of Stata. Key words: Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), regional trade patterns, Central and South Asia, infrastructure development, regional integration, case study. "China is a sleeping lion. Let him sleep, because when he wakes up, he will shake the whole world," Napoleon Bonaparte said at the time. Centuries later, this lion not only woke up, but also roared. This was especially confirmed in 2013 when the President of the People's Republic of China, Xi Jing Ping, announced the geopolitical initiative: "One Space, One Road" as part of the implementation of the "Chinese Dream" strategy. Inspired by its ancient Great Silk Road trade route, the One Place One Road project aims to create a common interest, responsibility and shared destiny with 4.4 billion people in 65 countries in Europe, Asia and Africa. The project accounts for about 32% of the world's gross domestic product, 39% of trade and 63% of the world's population. [1] Figure 1: Map of Main Belt and Road Initiative Land and Sea Routes. Seeing new business and trade opportunities from the initiative, many cite its benefits for growth and development. Others urged caution, noting the serious risks of developing countries defaulting on project-related debt, infrastructure stranding, and damage to local communities and the environment. According to World Bank research, "One Space One Road" transport corridors have the potential to significantly improve trade, foreign investment and living conditions for the citizens of the countries participating in the project, but China and other countries in the corridor will increase economic transparency, expand trade and Debt stability and mitigation, environmental, social and corruption risks can be reduced only if deeper political reforms are adopted. Project transport corridors will help in two important processes: 1) reduction of travel time, 2) increase of trade and investment. Along the economic corridors, the study estimates that travel times will be reduced by up to 12 percent after completion. Travel times with the rest of the world are estimated to decrease by an average of 3% Trade will also increase dramatically, albeit unevenly, for the project economy. According to the study, the economy of the project corridors is predicted to grow from 2.8 to 9.7 percent, and for the world economy from 1.7 to 6.2 percent. Importantly, foreign direct investment in low-income countries is expected to increase significantly by 7.6 percent due to new transport links. [2] One of the fundamental pillars of the BRI is infrastructure development, which serves as the backbone for enhancing connectivity between Central and South Asia. According to data from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), between 2013 and 2020, over $300 billion in infrastructure investments were allocated to Central and South Asia under the BRI framework. [3] These investments have led to the construction of key transportation corridors, such as the China-Pakista