Analysis and Forecasting of Electricity Usage in Industrial Water Supply Firms: A Case Study of NMMC Water Supply Company Using Polynomial Regression Method

Аннотация

In this study, we examined the methodology for analyzing the electrical energy consumption of the Navoiy Mining Metallurgical Combine's Water Supply Company (hereafter referred to as the NMMC Technical Water Supply Company) and developed theoretical proposals to enhance energy efficiency. It is important to note that the proposed theoretical solutions for improving electrical energy efficiency are applicable not only to the NMMC Technical Water Supply Company but also to other industrial enterprises. This research involved a thorough analysis of energy consumption indicators, with a primary focus on identifying the main factors affecting electricity usage. The study highlights the identification and mitigation of key factors influencing electricity consumption, thereby demonstrating potential reductions in electrical energy wastage for the enterprise, and economically benefiting the global electricity system. Furthermore, the research explores the implementation of Energy Management Systems as a strategic approach for monitoring, analyzing, and optimizing energy consumption. Recommendations for improving air tightness to mitigate temperature effects and the importance of continuous analysis and revision of normative indicators are emphasized. Additionally, the entire technological process of the NMMC Technical Water Supply Company was studied, pinpointing areas of high electrical energy consumption. Primary data on electricity consumption at these points were verified for reliability using Gaussian distribution, ensuring the accuracy of all values used. The study also presents forecasts of the company's electrical energy consumption in the forthcoming months. 1 INTRODUCTION consumers of not just electrical energy but also technical water, contributing to their overall energy footprint [7]. Technical water, used in various Energy consumption in industrial enterprises is a industrial applications like cooling and processing, topic of increasing importance due to its economic forms a crucial aspect of industrial operations, often and environmental implications [1]. Many industrial overlooked in conventional energy studies [3]. enterprises, such as the Navoiy Mining and The NMMC water supply company, responsible for Metallurgy Combinat (NMMC), are significant supplying technical water, illustrates this intersection of water and energy usage. Understanding its energy down to 6 kV in three stages at the NMMC consumption patterns is vital for devising energy 220/35/6 substation and then further reduced to 0.4 efficiency strategies [4,5,6]. This study aims to kV through small transformers in the plant for analyze the energy consumption at NMMC with a electrical equipment supply. focus on identifying key factors influencing its For automatic accounting of electrical energy electricity usage, against the backdrop of a growing consumption in this enterprise, a CE308 type meter rated 5[10]A 3*57.7/100v, 50 Hz has been emphasis on sustainable industrial practices [8,9]. installed based on technological calculations. By examining the NMMC case, this research 2. The enterprise has 10 pump stations, with contributes to the broader discourse on energy typically 2 pumps operating continuously. The efficiency in industrial settings, where energy remaining pumps are activated as needed. While consumption accounts for a significant portion of the calculated electrical consumption for two operational costs and environmental impacts [10,11]. pumps is 24 MWh, the metered value is 20.256 Thus, the findings of this study are expected to MWh. provide valuable insights not only for NMMC but 3. It was determined that the comparative also for other industrial enterprises facing similar electrical energy consumption of the NMMC challenges. water supply company is on average 30% higher than the set standard. Correlation analysis of factors affecting comparative electrical energy 2 Methods consumption revealed that changes in air temperature account for 71%, the amount of water delivered 95%, and changes in river water level The article utilises quantitative analysis, 9%. Gaussian distribution, polynomial regression, 4. The data for the analysis, based on the law and correlation analysis. of Gaussian distribution, was deemed reliable, and it was found to conform to the Gaussian law. By 2022, industrial enterprises accounted for 45-50% of energy consumption. Therefore, 3 Results developing and rapidly implementing organizational and technical measures based on The primary research involved a simplified complex analysis methods for all types comprehensive analysis of the enterprise, leading of industrial enterprises is of great importance. to the following findings: In this context, a method for primary rapid 1. Future expected values of comparative inspection and energy consumption were determined using analysis, followed fourth, fifth, and sixth-degree polynomial by the regression, with the fourth-degree model being implementation of most