Analysis of the threat level of the increase of the state debt in the gross domestic product in ensuring the economic security of the country.

Аннотация

The article examines the public debt in the GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the cost of servicing the public debt in the state budget revenues and their dynamics, and also, based on the method of econometric analysis, reveals the relationship between the change in the share of public debt in GDP and the change in the level of threats to the economic security of the country. 1 INTRODUCTION term speculative loans. In his address to the Oliy Majlis (parliament), the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan stated that “in the current complex One of the main reasons for the financial crises conditions in the world, we will consistently continue occurring in the world in the context of the an open and pragmatic foreign policy based on globalization of the world economy is related to the mutual trust and respect [1]. In particular, from 2023, problems of foreign debt and its payment. It is not in the management of public debt in relation to the difficult to observe that the ill-considered foreign debt GDP, the goal is to ensure that the amount of newly policy of many countries has left their economies attracted external debt does not exceed 4.5 billion US weak, dependent on external factors, vulnerable and dollars per year [2].” vulnerable to dangerous situations. Public debt is a 2 Background literature financial resource of the state obtained by issuing securities from domestic and foreign financial That includes those foreign scientists such as markets. Public debt is incurred when there is a J.M. Keynes., D. North, A.B. Adams, E. Soto, Dj. budget deficit. Forrester, S.P. Lee, Ya.L. Ngning, T. Blake, K. Public debt has different effects on economic Ogawa, M.F. Al-Refai, E. Kim, G.S. Becker and growth in different countries. In particular, countries others who have studied the impact of public debt on such as South Korea and Japan had a large amount of the economy and its regulation. public debt in the 1950s and 1960s, but these debts Russian scientists V.V. Gerasimov, V.S. had also a positive effect on the recovery of the Zagashvili, V.V. Volchik, N. V. Tseikovets, A.V. economy and even its development. Furthermore, in Kolosov, E. Yu. Kolesnikov, M. Ya, Kornilov, Yu. V. some countries, especially in Indonesia, the public Latov, D.D.Burkaltseva, V.A.Bogomolov, debt did not give its results and hindered the A.Prokhojev, M.Kornilov and others conducted economic growth. Similar patterns can be observed in scientific research work on this topic. many countries. The scientific-theoretical aspects of public debt Public debt plays an important role in the in the development of the economy of the Republic of development of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan and its effective management were Uzbekistan. During its independent development, discussed by Abulqosimov Kh.P., Abdupakhmonov Uzbekistan has always followed the principle of long- K.Kh., Vakhobov A.V., Jo'raev T.T., Rasulev A.F, term and preferential interest rates, abandoning short- Rasulev T.S. ., Vakhobov A.V., Olmasov A., Mamatov A.A., Asatullaev X.S., Tursunov B.O., the country's GDP, which is a threat related to the Tokhtaboev J.Sh., G'aniev D.A., Urmonov J.J., Sh.R. growth of the state debt and the change in the share of Qabilov and others conducted scientific research its service costs in the state budget revenues. As we work in this field. may know, the country's economy requires additional Foreign scientists P. Zondi and S. Robinson capital for its financial improvement and economic evaluated the impact of public external debt on development. If government spending exceeds tax economic growth using the autoregressive distributed revenues, it will lead to a budget deficit, which will lag model based on statistical data from 1994-2019. have to be financed by borrowing from the domestic According to the results of the analysis, the impact of sector or international governments. An increase in the state external debt on economic growth was the share of public debt in the country's GDP becomes positive in the short term. However, in the long term, a public debt burden, which consists of internal and the impact of public external debt on economic external debts. Choosing the fastest and painless growth was negative [3]. methods of solving and managing the problem in the Russian scientists Prokhojev A., Kornilov M. context of the external debt crisis is of great scientific He assessed that security in the foreign economic and theoretical importance. sphere is characterized by the country's Despite the dynamics of the growth of public competitiveness in the world market, the stability of debt in the Republic of Uzbekistan in recent years, the national currency, the state's foreign debt, and the according to international standards, the public debt state's financial situation [4]. Professor Bogomolov of the Republic of Uzbekistan (40.4% of GDP), V.A. expressed an opinion on the importance of including public external debt (36.5% of GDP) foreign debt in t