Econometric Modeling of City Population Growth in Developing Countries

Аннотация

Urbanization process is one of great issues in our time. Cities are now home to more than half of the world’s population. Especially, the towns and cities of developing countries are places where almost all the world population growth is occurring and thus preparation for the growth is required to meet a range of development needs. In this increasing urban era, it is of importance to monitor urban populations and environments, and understand how urban populations are changing in both the spatial and time dimensions for development and urban planning policies. This dissertation considers econometric modeling of city population growth, aiming at estimating and forecasting rates of city population growth and size for almost all of the developing countries. Both classical and Bayesian spatial econometric models of city growth are used, which can provide us information on uncertainty and take into account of economic, demographic, geographic, and environmental factors promoting and hindering city population growth.