AGROMETEOROLOGICAL CROP YIELD MODELLING

Аннотация

Time series analyses of agricultural statistics show that the inter-annual variability1 of crop yields can be roughly subdivided into 3 components : (i) trend, (ii) direct weather factors and (iii) indirect weather effects, pests, diseases, weed competition, etc. In developed countries, the trend - due to improved technology and management - accounts for about 80% of the variability. The remaining 20 % is shared about equally between weather, and pests and diseases, of which many are also weather dependent. If the trend is removed from the time series, we can therefore assume that the largest fraction of the residual variability is due to weather.