FROM FIELDS TO FINANCE: HOW WATER SHORTAGES THREATEN UZBEKISTAN'S AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY

Аннотация

This paper analyzes the potential risks and consequences of water scarcity for the agricultural economy of Uzbekistan. The depletion of water resources not only reduces productivity in the field, but also directly affects financial flows, market price volatility, and food security. Historical processes - the drying up of the Aral Sea, over-irrigation practices, salinization, and land reclamation problems - have exacerbated current economic pressures. At the same time, climate change, more frequent droughts, and increased competition for water resources are expected to pose serious threats to the sustainability of agriculture in the future. The study discusses the economic consequences of water scarcity, their impact on farms, the domestic market, and export potential. The solutions proposed include the widespread introduction of water-saving technologies, the introduction of digital control over water distribution, and enhanced regional cooperation. Keywords: Water scarcity, agricultural economics, irrigation efficiency, lessons from the Oral River Basin, climate change, drought risk, water management, food security, water-saving technologies, financial sustainability. Introduction. In recent years, water scarcity has become increasingly urgent as one of the most serious problems facing the agricultural economy of Uzbekistan. This situation directly affects not only the process of growing crops in the fields, but also the stability of the entire economic system. Since agriculture is one of the main sectors of our country's economy, any negative changes in it can have wide-ranging consequences, from production volumes to food security andexportrevenues. The depletion of water resources is caused by factors such as climate change, reduced water flows in river basins, outdated irrigation systems, and inefficient water use. As a result, cropland is shrinking in some regions, productivity is declining, and production costs are increasing. Thislimits theeconomic potential offarms andentire agricultural sectors. Studying this topic, identifying the economic threats of water scarcity and finding ways to eliminate them is of strategic importance not only for the well-being of the present, but also for future generations. Because water is not only a source of crops, but also the foundation of economic growth and sustainable development. Therefore, rational management of water resources and the introduction of modern technologies are the main guarantees of protecting Uzbekistan's agriculture from future threats. General information on the topic: The agricultural economy of Uzbekistan has historically relied on irrigated agriculture. However, the depletion of water resources in recent decades poses a serious threat to this sector. A large part of the territory of our republic has arid climatic conditions, and natural precipitation is insufficient for crop production. Therefore, water is one ofthemain factors not only ofagriculture, but also ofeconomic stability as awhole. The causes of water scarcity are multifaceted. Due to global warming, river levels are falling, mountain glaciers are shrinking, and their water supply capacity is decreasing. There is also a 463 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ISSN:2692-5206,ImpactFactor:12,23 AmericanAcademicpublishers,volume05,issue08,2025 Journal: https://www.academicpublishers.org/journals/index.php/ijai large loss of resources due to outdated irrigation facilities and irregular water use. In addition, populationgrowth and economicgrowth are further increasing thedemand forwater. This process directly affects agricultural productivity: in some regions, arable land is shrinking, production costs are increasing, and crop quality is deteriorating. As a result, farmers' incomes are decreasing, and the country's food security may be at risk. At the same time, water scarcity isalso negatively affecting export potentialand slowing economicgrowth. The issue of saving and efficient management of water resources is not only an ecological but also an economic necessity. New technologies - drip irrigation, proper use of groundwater, water recycling, etc. - can help mitigate this problem in the future. Therefore, the issue of water scarcity should be considered as a strategic problem that affects the sustainability of the entire agricultural economicchain, from "field to finance". Relevance of the topic (local + global significance) : Water scarcity is one of the most serious environmental and economic problems facing not only Uzbekistan, but the whole world today. From a local point of view, our country's agriculture relies mainly on irrigated land, that is, productivitydirectly depends on water supply. Sincea large territory of Uzbekistan is located in an arid climate zone, natural precipitation is not enough for crop production, which makes the rational useofwater resources themost important guaranteeofnational foodsecurity. Water scarcity, which results in reduced product