Decoupling from Moscow: Shifting Labor Migration Policies in Central Asia

Аннотация

This paper examines the evolving labor migration policies in Central Asia in response to the geopolitical shifts following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the tightening of labor migration laws in Russia. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are the focus of the study since they are the most economically reliant on remittances sent by labor migrants in the Russian Federation. The paper also discusses Kazakhstan, as it is the second biggest host of Central Asian migrants. It highlights the trend towards diversifying labor migration destinations to Europe and Asia in an attempt to reduce the economic dependence on Russia. Due to limited data, the paper provides an overview of Turkmenistan’s labor migration situation. The paper concludes by offering policy recommendations. Keywords: Central Asia, Russia, migrants, remittances, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, economic risks, GDP, governance. pressure the country to join the EEU, where regulations Introduction: Central Asian migrants contribute for citizens of member states are laxer. significantly to the Russian economy, filling labor shortages. They are heavily involved in construction, Contribution from remittances is difficult to dismiss. transportation, and urban services. For decades, Remittances received from the migrants accounted for Central Asian workers have been moving to Russia in roughly 18.8% (2023) of Kyrgyzstan’s, 47.9% (2024) of search of higher wages and more employment Tajikistan’s and 14.4% (2024) of Uzbekistan’s GDPs opportunities not found in their home countries. The according to the World Bank. For Kyrgyzstan, appeal of the Russian job market is further amplified by Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan the intentions of Russia to its proximity to the region, strong economic, political regulate and limit labor migration are clearly a factor of and historical ties, common cultural and linguistic risk. legacy. Enlistment of labor migrants, especially those from There are about 10.5 million migrants from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and their placement at the Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan working in Russia, according frontlines in Ukraine is becoming a tendency. It is to the Russian Interior Ministry. Many more are estimated that over three thousand people from potentially unregistered. While these migrants Central Asia now serve in the Russian army, according contribute to the Russian economy, they also face to the “I want to live” project of the Ministry of Defense challenges including legal uncertainties, potential of Ukraine. Russian officials have also acknowledged exploitation, and xenophobia, particularly after events the recruitment of migrants. Alexander Bastrykin, head like the Crocus City Hall attack. of Russia’s Investigative Committee, stated during a legal forum in St. Petersburg that his office had In the past, threats to tighten immigration policies were identified around 80,000 individuals who received sometimes used as a coercion tool by Russia against Russian citizenship but then attempted to evade Central Asian and other countries. In 2019, for military service. Of those, approximately 20,000 are example, Russia implemented more restrictive policies currently serving on the front lines in Ukraine. targeting immigrants from outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), including Tajikistan, as a way to Reports suggest that Russian army representatives International Journal Of History And Political Sciences 14 https://theusajournals.com/index.php/ijhps International Journal Of History And Political Sciences (ISSN – 2771-2222) have been enticing migrants with promises of fast According to the Migration Agency of Uzbekistan, the money through short-term enlistment. These are not decline in interest of migrants from Uzbekistan in professional soldiers. They are more likely former Russia is noticeable. While 1.2 million migrants from cleaners, street sweepers, construction workers, Uzbekistan were working in this country at the end of undocumented migrants, often trapped in legal limbo, 2023, this number dropped to 698,000 by the end of lured with false promises of fast-track Russian 2024. citizenship or pulled straight from prisons and The past few years have exposed the fragile economic detention centers. dependence of Central Asian states on remittances Moreover, the deadly terrorist attack that occurred in from Russia. Central Asian states view this risk seriously the Moscow region at the Crocus City Hall on March 22, and understand the vitality of taking steps towards 2024, has intensified anti-migrant rhetoric by far-right diversifying external migration locations. In response to nationalist groups and led to a nationwide increase in geopolitical shifts, Central Asian states are adopting xenophobia. Four Tajik nationals were found to be more cohesive migration policies compared to the past. responsible for killing 137 people and leaving 100 This article attempts to analyze the ongoing labor injured as a result