THE GEOPOLITICAL AND OIL MARKET INFLUENCE OF ARAB COUNTRIES IN THE PALESTINE-ISRAEL DISPUTE

Аннотация

As the world energy market was still getting used to OPEC+'s production restrictions and the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate, causing unease since October 7,2023. Palestinian political and military organisation Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October, reigniting years of conflict between Palestine and Israel. Israel has been violently responding to Hamas by bombing the Palestinian Gaza region for over a month now, and the growing casualty toll has kept the commodities market in a state of unease. As a result, on dramatically changing geopolitical situation in the region also illustrated that how last decade Arabian countries playing important role with relationship gigantic states. Qatar one of states that immediately reacted to this humanitarian crises. Official Doha are threatening to create a global gas shortage as part of their support for Palestine. “If the bombing of Gaza does not stop, we will cut off the gas supply to the world,” said EmirTamimbin Hamad Al Thani. Keywords:oil, gas, geopolitics, Palestine, Israel, MiddleEast. In the face of increasing competition, and even confrontation, in energy markets, the words of Henry Kissinger, spoken in 1974: “You can never conduct energy policy1 as a purely economic matter. From the very beginning it was the subject of foreign policy.” On top of this, Russian- Ukraine war demonstrated after huge pandemic year that energy policy is primary on foreign affairs ofthe world. In addition, Natural gas is shifting from a regional to a global scale and it is playing a key role in the transition of the energy paradigm, and its importance is supported by three factors. First, by the increase of its consumption across the world, competing, since the 90s, with oil and coal, since it is a cleaner fossil fuel with lower environmental emissions, and more versatile, which contributes to overall energy system resilience to disruption. Second, this increase is also associated with the growth in the interconnection of gas transportation networks worldwide, whether already built or in project. 2 Third, the world’s proved gas reserves are growing, about 40% over the past 20years (MiddleEast oneof leading landin theglobeongas export) A sharp escalation in geopolitical risk in the MiddleEast, a region accounting for more than one- third of the world’s seaborne oil trade, has markets on edge. In its October oil report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted the possibility of "higher for longer" interest rates due to price fluctuations, slowing down economic and demand growth for crude oil. This was in response to oil prices rising to nearly $98 per barrel in mid September after additional production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. After three days of starting this war on 10 October, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate increased 4.3 percent to $86.38 per barrel, global 51 benchmark Brent Crude increased 4.2 percent to $88.15 per barrel. Despite the fact that neither Israel nor the beleaguered Gaza Strip are major oil producers, worries that the fighting would spark more instability in the region have shocked the markets. Some of the world's largest oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, are located in the Middle East. The region also has Originalarticle ISSN:3030-3931, Impact factor: 7,241 Volume 8,issue2,Iyul 2025 https://worldlyjournals.com/index.php/Yangiizlanuvchi worldly knowledge OAKIndex bazalari : research gate, research bib. Qo’shimchaindex bazalari:zenodo,open aire. googlescholar. vital transit routes, such the Strait of Hormuz, which is referred to as the world's most significant "oil chokepoint." Unlike the spike in oil prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, the fighting between Israeli soldiers and Hamas fighters, which has killed more than 1,500 people so far in Israel and Gaza, does not directly involve oil-producing nations. By the way, Musa Abu Marzouk a member of the Politburo of the Palestinian Hamas movement waited more practical steps from Islamic countries for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, said to Turkish newspaper Yeni Şafak. He maintained that “We know very well that earlier, during the Arab wars, an oil embargo was introduced to support the Arab cause. Today it is possibleto stop theoil supplies of those who help this Zionist entity. Arab and Muslim countries can take more steps towards a ceasefire. Islamic countries should not be content with statements and condemnations.” “Voluntary cuts are expected to keep the oil market in deficit as OPEC+ could pump 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) below the call on its crude in 4Q23,” IEA said. Russian oil export revenues rosefrom $1.8bn(Rbs174.41bn)to $18.8bninSeptember, thehighest since July2022. Arab nations can be crucial in helping Israelis and Palestinians put an end to the ongoing violence, prevent conditions in Gaza that exacerbate the region's security and instability, and create a framewor