The Role of External Factors in Ensuring Macroeconomic Stability: An Analytical Study Based on Uzbekistan's Experience

Аннотация

This article provides an empirical analysis of the external factors influencing sustainable economic growth, focusing on Uzbekistan as a case study. Key variables examined include foreign trade, foreign direct investment, external debt, and international reserves. In recent years, the share of foreign trade in the country’s GDP has increased significantly; however, a persistent trade deficit and the high share of gold exports have exerted downward pressure on macroeconomic stability. The growing cost of servicing external debt and the decline in international reserves indicate a growing reliance on external financial sources. The article offers recommendations for strengthening macroeconomic stability through export diversification, increasing the share of high value-added products, adopting a prudent external debt strategy, and enhancing international reserves. The results underline the importance of managing external factors in a comprehensive and balanced manner to achieve sustainable growth. Keywords: macroeconomic stability, foreign trade, external debt, export diversification, gold exports