FORECASTING DIRECTIONS OF O‘ZTRANSGAZ JSC'S ACTIVITIES FOR THE PERIOD 2024–2027

Аннотация

This article analyzes the activities of “Uztransgaz” JSC during the period of 2015– 2023 based on a multivariate regression-correlation analysis. Despite a decline in the volume of natural gas supply during this period, the company succeeded in increasing its gross revenue by 1.8 times. This outcome is associated with modernization, infrastructure renewal, and the implementation of an effective remuneration system. The study mathematically models the impact of production volume, average wages, and incentive expenditures on revenue. Based on the regression equation and correlation analysis, the main factors influencing revenue were identified, and forecasting was carried out in three stages. In particular, the strengthening of wages and incentives under the mobilization process emerged as a key factor in stable revenue growth. Keywords: multivariate regression analysis, correlation analysis, natural gas supply, economic efficiency, average wages, incentive expenditures, revenue forecast, strategic processes, “Uztransgaz” JSC. 131 Volume 4, issue 6, 2025 "Uztransgaz" JSC holds a strategic position among the enterprises responsible for supplying natural gas to the population in Uzbekistan. In particular, as a result of the measures aimed at improvingthecompany’s operationsin 2023,thefollowing positiveoutcomes were achieved:1  As a result of modernization measures implemented at the “Sheykhoncha” gas distribution station, which was commissioned by the company in 2018, an additional pipeline was constructed for the “Aksa Enerji” power plant. With this addition, the total number of such pipelines reached three, improving the natural gas supply for nearly 30,000 households and 17 industrialenterprises inBukhara city and its districts.  The commissioning of 31 kilometers of the “Termiz-2” main gas pipeline, constructed in parallel to the “Temiz” main pipeline (with a total planned length of 46.5 km), improved the natural gas supply for six regions of Surkhandarya, namely: the city of Termiz, and the districts of Termiz, Angor, Jarkurgan, Qiziriq, and Sherobod. Additionally, this initiative is expected to enhance natural gas supply for over 62,000 households during the 2024–2025 autumn-winter season.  A new gas pipeline constructed by “Uztransgaz” JSC — the “Olimkent Avto Reys” gas distribution station (GDS) — connected 5,640 households and 147 wholesale consumers from the neighborhoods of “Sultonobod,” “S. Tegizboev,” “S. Rahimov,” “Qo‘rg‘oncha,” “Birlik,” and “Mustaqillik” in Oqqorgon district. As a result, the gas transmission distance in the area was reduced by16km,and gas pressure was successfully doubled.  In order to improve natural gas supply indicators for the population of the Ferghana Valley (Andijan, Namangan, and Ferghana regions), six new wells were drilled in 2023, increasing daily natural gas production from 9,000m³ to 12,000m³.2 1-rasm "Economicperformance indicators of O‘ztransgaz JSC"3 Total Goods revenueof Average Employee (works, the salary, incentives, Years services), enterprise, million millionUZS million m³ million UZS (x2) (x3) (x1) UZS (y) 2015 8359680.4 38344.4 1.5 186566.9 2016 10125910.7 39562.5 1.9 164895.2 2017 11005757.3 37450 2.3 168859.1 2018 15750540.5 38882.2 2.5 112743.7 2019 25392640.6 38660.1 4.5 120007.9 2020 24367330.5 30906.9 6.8 79746.7 2021 23644758.3 23644.8 7.4 94547.3 2022 20509751.5 22978.2 8.5 138588.9 1 "O‘ztransgaz" JSC announced the results of its activities for 2023. January 24, 2024. [Online resource]. URL: https://kun.uz/kr/news/2024/01/24/oztransgaz-aj-2023-yildagi-faoliyati-yakunlarini-elon-qildi 2 "O‘ztransgaz" JSC announced the results of its activities for 2023. January 24, 2024. [Online resource]. URL: https://kun.uz/kr/news/2024/01/24/oztransgaz-aj-2023-yildagi-faoliyati-yakunlarini-elon-qildi 3“O‘ztransgaz”AJma’lumotlariasosidatuzilgan 132 Volume 4, issue 6, 2025 2023 15165150.1 2298.4 9.2 160615.7 According to the data provided by “O‘ztransgaz” JSC, during the period from 2015 to 2023, the company supplied the country’s population and real sector enterprises with a total of 292,727.5 million cubic meters of natural gas. Over the same period, the company's total revenue amounted to approximately 15,165.2 billion UZS. Notably, the volume of natural gas produced by the company decreased by 1.7 times or 41.8%, indicating a decline in the country’s natural gas reserves. At the same time, despite the downward trend in production volume, the company’s gross revenue increased by 1.8 times, which signifies high economic efficiency. Additionally, during the study period, the average salary at the company rose from 1.5 million UZS to 9.2 million UZS,while employee incentive expenses decreased by13.9%(Figure 1). According to the company’s management, the reduction in incentive expenses over the analyzed period was due to a shift towards uniform motivation through increased base salaries, instead of selective incentives. Over time, the company has been graduall