EMPIRICAL AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN KARAKALPAKSTAN

Аннотация

This article analyzes the impact of investments, employment, and irrigation systems on the gross regional product (GRP) in the Republic of Karakalpakstan. The study uses economic and mathematical methods to study the factors affecting agricultural production based on statistical data for the period 2015–2023. The results show the importance of investments and irrigation infrastructure, and reveal the positive impact of the employment level on GRP. Based on the results of the study, practical recommendations for the development of agriculture in Karakalpakstan were developed. Keywords: gross regional product, investments, irrigation, employment, economic analysis, potential,modernization,Karakalpakstan. ЭМПИРИЧЕСКИЙИ РЕГРЕССИОННЫЙ АНАЛИЗРАЗВИТИЯСЕЛЬСКОГО ХОЗЯЙСТВАВ КАРАКАЛПАКСТАНЕ Амангелдиев Мырзабек Курбанкелдиевич студентКаракалпакского государственного университетаимени Бердаха Научныйруководитель:Инятов АлмазРеймбаевич к.э.н.,доценткафедры«Экономика итуризм» Каракалпакского государственного университетаимени Бердаха Аннотация: В данной статье анализируется влияние инвестиций, занятости и ирригационных систем на валовой региональный продукт (ВРП) в Республике Каракалпакстан. В исследовании используются экономико-математические методы для изучения факторов, влияющих на сельскохозяйственное производство, на основе статистических данных за 2015-2023 годы. Результаты показывают важность инвестиций и ирригационной инфраструктуры, а также положительное влияние уровня занятости на ВРП. По результатам исследования были разработаны практические рекомендации по развитиюсельского хозяйствавКаракалпакстане. Ключевые слова: валовой региональный продукт, инвестиции, ирригация, занятость, экономическийанализ,потенциал,модернизация,Каракалпакстан. I.INTRODUCTION The Republic of Karakalpakstan represents a strategically significant region within the agrarian sector of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Its abundant natural resources, particularly land and water, serve as fundamental inputsfor agricultural development. However, persistent challenges such as water scarcity, underutilization of labor resources, and an inadequately developed investment climate have adversely affected the efficiency and productivity of the agricultural sector in the region . 1 https://ijmri.de/index.php/jmsi volume 4,issue5,2025 1280 Amidst the broader economic reform agenda being pursued in Uzbekistan, the effective mobilization of Karakalpakstan’s agricultural potential, modernization of its irrigation infrastructure, and the stimulation of investment inflows have become pressing priorities. In this context, the present study aims to empirically examine the impact of three core variables — investment, employment, and irrigation — on the gross agricultural output (GAO) of the region. The analysis is grounded in recent statistical data and employs economic-mathematical modeling toassess theinfluence ofthese factors. II.LITERATUREANALYSIS The theory and practice of the formation of agriculture in foreign countries have been studied to a certain extent by many scientists and researchers. In particular, Radenovich, Jarko and Krstich, Boyan and Markovich, Milan, Muhammad Ali, Nasrida Man, Farrah Muharam, Jai Z., Martinez J.F., Beltran V. and Martinez N.L., Cheung M.F., To U.M., Milanovich, Slavoljub K., Nehra, Mukesh Jangra, Sumit Jangra and others have researched these issues. It is noteworthy that the issues of the agro-industrial complex are widely covered in the scientific research of CIS scientists Bautin V.M., Kozlov V.V., Fedorenko V.F., Koptelov A., Semilyakova K.V., Ananev M.A., Goryaev G.D., Golovkov V.A., Shafranskaya I.V., Asalkhanov P.G., Bendik N.V., ChibisovaI.S., PlatonovaT.E.3 and others. Among the economists of our country Gulyamov S.S., Shodiev T.Sh., Abdullaev I.S., Begalov B.A., Doschanov T.D., Ruzmetov B.R., Salaev S.K., Saukhanov Zh.K.4 Kuchkarov T.S., Kenjabaev A.T., Mirzatayev S.M., Utemuratov R.U., Jiyemuratov T.P. and others development of agriculture, using available resources efficient use of production processes in the industry modeling, ensuring optimal solutions in agriculture use of information technologies, forecast indicators theoretical and methodological aspects of forecasting based on econometric models scientificand practical problems have beenthoroughly researched. III.RESEARCH METHODOLOGY In the context of agricultural development, the key drivers of economic growth are widely recognized to include capital investments, the effective utilization of labor resources (employment), and the efficient management of land and water resources (notably through irrigation). Numerous studies by international organizations such as the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations emphasize that enhancing the performance of irrigation systems can increase agricultural productivity by approximately 25–30 percent . This study employs a combination of statistical analysis and econometric modeling